Navigating the Halibut Market in 2026: What Buyers Need to Know About Supply, Pricing, and the Atlantic “New Normal”

NWFA members gathered on Wednesday, January 21 for a timely deep dive into halibut market dynamics with guest speaker Mark Callahan of the John Nagle Company. The conversation stayed grounded in what the industry feels every day: supply is tight, pricing is jumpy, and the market is changing fast—especially as Atlantic halibut continues to expand its footprint.

A quick thank you to E & E Foods for sponsoring the evening and helping NWFA keep these practical, operator-to-operator conversations happening.

The Pacific halibut reality: biology and management set the ceiling

A consistent theme throughout the talk was that Pacific halibut is a wild fishery with a hard biological cap. In other words, the market can debate price all day, but nature and management ultimately decide how much product exists to buy and sell.

Mark walked through the management framework under the International Pacific Halibut Commission (IPHC), which has long set the structure for the fishery through coastwide coordination between the U.S. and Canada. While the science and assessment methods have evolved over the years, the headline hasn’t changed: the supply picture remains constrained, and the industry is operating in a period of historically low biomass compared to past decades.

That constraint shows up in the “feel” of the season, too. Early openings tend to produce smaller fish, with larger fish showing up later in the spring and into early summer. The point for buyers isn’t just trivia—it’s that timing affects size profiles, and size profiles affect everything downstream: yields, portioning, customer expectations, and ultimately value.

From derby days to IFQs: why the system changed (and what it unlocked)

Mark also gave a straightforward historical recap of how the fishery moved from the old derby-style openings to an IFQ-based system (implemented in the mid-1990s). The takeaway was simple: the old structure drove dangerous, compressed fishing windows and a flood of product hitting the system at once, which didn’t serve quality, safety, or market stability.

The IFQ era changed the rhythm. Instead of everyone racing a handful of days, the fishery became spread across a longer season (generally spring through fall). That shift helped build a true fresh market over time, and it also made handling practices and discipline more central to profitability—because when you’re selling fresh, details matter.

Mark put it plainly: “Quality yield, handling, discipline is very important to realize value.”

Whale predation and gear shifts: a very real operational factor

One topic that resonated across the room was the increased impact of whale predation on longline gear. As Mark described it, whales have learned the difference between gear going down versus gear coming up—and they show up at exactly the wrong time.

His line of the night captured it: “McDonald’s for whales.”

Beyond the humor is a real business consequence: lost fish, damaged gear, and challenges in accounting for what’s removed before it ever reaches the dock. Mark noted that this pressure is one reason pot gear has become more important in parts of the fishery, helping reduce certain types of loss compared to traditional longline sets.

Atlantic halibut isn’t a side story anymore

If Pacific halibut is the product buyers know by heart, Atlantic halibut is the product that’s rapidly becoming part of everyone’s plan—whether they asked for it or not.

Mark described Atlantic halibut as the “new guy on the block,” but the bigger point was that it’s growing, and that growth is reshaping market behavior. The fishery’s range is broad (with key supply coming from Canadian Atlantic provinces), and quota levels have increased over time, supported by ongoing assessment work.

That growth has created a market shift buyers are actively feeling: Atlantic halibut is increasingly serving traditional East Coast demand, and more Atlantic product is now moving west as buyers look for consistent coverage in the face of Pacific constraints.

Taste and quality: can customers tell the difference?

A practical buyer question came up near the end: is Atlantic halibut noticeably different from Pacific in taste or eating quality?

Mark’s answer was direct: most people can’t tell the difference in blind testing, and the bigger drivers of customer satisfaction are handling, freshness, and execution. Put another way: if the product is cared for and the kitchen doesn’t abuse it, halibut is going to eat like halibut.

He also addressed a familiar quality issue—chalky fish—and emphasized that while the condition can affect presentation (and therefore perception), it remains a protein with legitimate markets depending on the use.

The 2026 bottom line: price floors exist, stability doesn’t

The industry-friendly summary Mark offered is one most seafood businesses will recognize immediately: halibut tends to have a strong price floor because supply is inherently limited—but that doesn’t mean pricing will behave nicely week to week.

As he put it, “Supply limitations create a strong price floor, not price stability.” For buyers, sellers, and distributors, that means planning matters more than ever: allocations, relationships, and realistic timelines are the difference between scrambling and executing.

NWFA will keep bringing these market-specific conversations to members—because nobody needs another generic “seafood trend report.” We need the real stuff.

Watch for the next event announcement, and we’ll see you at the next NWFA meeting.